In his article on the Internet resource CentralAsia.news, an economic observer Valentin Trapeznikov stated that during the years of independence Turkmenistan’s economy has been showing the impressive dynamics of development. According to the expert, this is evidenced by the achievements of the past 4-5 years.
For example, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at the rate of 6.2-6.3% in 2020-2023 and the first half of 2024. In this period, comparative data vividly illustrates the high economic dynamics. In 2020, GDP rose 3.7 times compared to 2007 and over 4.9 times compared to 2023.
GDP growth was ensured by most of the main sectors of the economy. The industrial sector remains the main driver of economic growth, the share of which in GDP increased from 28% in 2020 to over 33% in 2022-2023. Industrial output during the period under review increased significantly and rose 6.6 times compared to 2007.
Among the real sectors of Turkmenistan’s economy, agriculture ranks second after industry, accounting for 11.3-11.8% of GDP in 2020-2023. In 2023, agricultural output increased over 5 times compared to 2007.
Construction accounted for 6.3-9.5% of GDP during the period under review. Furthermore, the service industries — transport and communications (8.8-10.7% of GDP), trade (18.4-19.7% of GDP) and other services (21.1-21.6% of GDP) play an important role in boosting the economic development of Turkmenistan.
An active investment policy is one of the factors contributing to economic growth. For example, in 2020-2023, capital investments in Turkmenistan’s economy were 6.9-8.5 times higher than those in 2007.
One of the predominant trends of recent years is investments in the non-manufacturing sector. In 2021-2023, their share stood at 53,7%, 58,3% and 50,8%, while 46,3%, 41,7% and 49,2% of capital investments were directed to the manufacturing sector during this period. In the first half of the year, investment in these sectors stood at 51,5% and 48,5%, respectively.
Investments in the real sector mainly correlate with the shares of the manufacturing sectors in GDP. For example, in 2020-2023, capital investments in the industrial sector that generates about one-third of GDP accounted for 25%-27.9% and those in the construction sector for 6.6-11.2%.
The above correlation is observed in the transport and communications sector (8.8-10.7% of GDP), and the share of investments in this sector was 6.0-11.2%. The social sector took on a significant share of investments. In particular, the share of investments in housing construction and utilities stood at 19.7-35.0% in 2020-2023.
Significant funds were invested in healthcare, social security, physical education, education, science, art and other social spheres. During the period under review, most sectors significantly overfulfilled their investment development programmes.
In 2022-2023, the annual investment development target was fulfilled by 100% and 104% across the country. In the first half of 2024, investments increased by 20,8% compared to the same period a year ago.
In 2020-2023, the development investment indicator in the oil and gas sector varied in the range of 105.4-175.5%. For the Ministry of Textile Industry, it increased 13.5-19.4 times.
The annual investment development target fulfilled by the Ministry of Industry and Construction Production ranged from 155,4% to 8.6 times. In the first half of the year, the annual target was exceeded by 1.5 times. The Ministry of Agriculture ensured the fulfilment of the investment development programme at 156.8-191.8%.
These indicators in the transport and communications sector ranged from 104,8% to 2 times. In the first half of the year, the investment development target was exceeded. The Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of Turkmenistan fulfilled the investment development plan from 115,9% to 2.1 times. In the first half of 2024, the investment development programme was implemented ahead of schedule.
In 2020-2023, the regions of Turkmenistan fulfilled the investment development programme at 116.6-192.7%. In the first half of the year, the implementation of investment development targets was far ahead of schedule. According to the National Rural Development Programme of the President of Turkmenistan until 2028, the annual investment development targets were fulfilled, ranging from 121,4% to 3.8 times in 2020-2023.
In the first half of 2024, the annual investment development target was fulfilled by 117,8%. Many construction projects under the Rural Development Programme demonstrate the high investment development indicators. The annual target for hospitals was fulfilled at over 2.6 times, residential buildings — at 2.6 times, schools — at 1.6 times, gasification facilities and gas pipelines — at 1.4 times and communication facilities — at 10.6 times. The investment development plan for preschool institutions has been almost fulfilled.
The high economic development indicators quite logically contributed to improving the standard of living of the people. In 2020-2023; the average monthly salary, pensions and scholarships rose 10% or higher. In the first half of 2024, the average salary rose 10,4% compared to the previous year. In 2023, the average salary rose about 5 times compared to 2007.
In 2020-2023, cash income per household increased annually by 10.1-10.2% and rose about 5 times in 2023 compared to 2007. The provision of the population with social services expanded significantly.
In the education sector, the number of educational institutions and the number of students, as well as preschool institutions and preschool children grew in 2020-2023. Moreover, the growth in the number of students and children significantly outpaced the growth in the number of institutions, which testifies to a qualitatively new level of educational institutions in terms of capacity and material and technical support.
The health sector saw an increase in the number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and hospital beds, health centres, as well as the capacity of outpatient clinics.
The factors that contribute to improving the standard of living of the people also include the development of sports infrastructure, cultural and educational facilities, expansion of transport and banking services, etc.
The current economic situation in the country is very positive: GDP growth rate is the highest in the region and one of the highest in the world; the standard of living of the population is steadily improved.
The prospects of economic development are evaluated quite highly. In particular, international financial and economic institutions confirm the continued positive dynamics of the development of Turkmenistan’s economy.
For example, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts the country’s GDP growth at 6,5% in 2024. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts an even higher growth rate — up to 7%. According to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Turkmenistan’s growth rate will stand at 5,9% in 2024 and will rise to 6,0% in 2025.
