Kazakhstan has been regarded as one of the most prosperous CIS Member States. This is evidenced not only by socio-economic indicators, but also by an escape from a political crisis after the presidential transition. The events of January 2022 in the Republic came as a surprise not only to the authorities of Kazakhstan, but also to politicians in a dozen of states.
Kazakhstan’s scenario: the protests over rising prices, unemployment or some social problems, and then the riots and shooting involving some militants – analysts began to “try” all this on other Central Asian states. The editors of CentralAsia.news requested that political expert Bakhrom Khamroev comment on public sentiments in Uzbekistan, given what the demonstrators in the neighbouring country have achieved.
Immediate causes
The interlocutor noted that Kazakhstan has a very high standard of living in the region and a mild political regime. The Republic has been regarded worldwide until 2020 as a stable state. In fact, none of experts anticipated that the rallies and riots would happen.
However, Khamroev noted that a detailed analysis of the situation in Kazakhstan shows that the protests and riots did not arise from nothing.
The causes of unrest are very obvious for every resident of Central Asia – this is a sharply deteriorating economic situation in the country, aggravated by rampant corruption and nepotism. Oil and gas revenues have proved incapable of slowing down the wave of accumulated problems and growing signs of discontent among the population. A catalyst that triggered mass protests was not the intrigues of America and Turkey, an international terrorist plot and the squabbles of local elites, which all kinds of conspiracy experts began to talk about in an attempt to justify their incompetence, but another sharp rise in prices, this time gas prices, and all this is in the country – a large exporter of hydrocarbons, the interlocutor stated.
Khamroev recalled the slogan of the demonstrators. In his opinion, people shouted “Shal, ket” not because they wanted Nursultan Nazarbayev to retire from political life of Kazakhstan. The fact that the people close to Elbasy got rich off resources played against him.
The people who shouted “Shal, ket” – “The old man, go away”, better than experts, have learned that the hard way who and whose relatives and close associates own the country’s oil and gas assets, and who in the growing poorer state is becoming fabulously rich and buys real estate in London, the expert said.
Discontent in Uzbekistan
Commenting on the situation in Uzbekistan, Khamroev said the economic situation in the Republic is even worse than that in Kazakhstan. The multibillion-dollar loans that Tashkent began to take since the presidency of Shavkat Mirziyoyev did not contribute to improving the situation. Moreover, resources are not used fully for the benefit of the Republic, but settle in the pockets of some individuals, which ordinary citizens are aware of.
The large-scale political and economic reforms announced by Shavkat Mirziyoyev after coming to power have resulted in redistribution of property. Numerous relatives and friends of the new president of Uzbekistan are growing in wealth at an astronomical pace. At other times, the long-suffering Central Asian nation, perhaps, would have philosophically taken this process as a customary natural disaster, but the situation has become so difficult that it isvery extremely difficult to turn a blind eye to what is going on, Khamroev believes.
The political expert is sure that the rallies in Kazakhstan have gained understanding among ordinary citizens of Uzbekistan. Moreover, the demonstrators were able to achieve a number of their demands.
I observe the greatest displays of sympathy from ordinary Uzbeks for the “Kazakh experience” and the desire to repeat it, even at the cost of sacrifice, especially since the sacrifice, as it turned out, was not in vain – the “old man” was forced to retire, like many of his relatives who had entrenched in the highest echelons of power, and gas prices fell, the interlocutor noted.
Bakhrom Khamroev believes that the level of discontent with the policy pursued by the authorities in Uzbekistan is quite high. The interlocutor has no doubt that it echoes the sentiments of ordinary citizens, not the subversive activities of international terrorists or extremists.
The level of discontent is such that the customary assumptions about extremists and international terrorists dreaming of setting fire to the country are not taken seriously. I hear young people who did not even live in the USSR wishing to become part of Russia, China, anyone, just not to vegetate further in predatory “independence”, the expert noted.
Khamroev believes that, taking into account the events in Kazakhstan, the authorities of Uzbekistan should not only pay close attention to the problems of the people, but also begin to solve them.
