The authorities of Kazakhstan have been in full control of the situation in the Republic for a week now. Law enforcement officers have repeatedly presented the statistics for fatalities and injuries. Investigative actions against several thousand detainees are well under way.
The remarkably high levels of mobilization of the rioters remains a mystery. It is not clear whether well-trained terrorists who had come from the Middle East countries really committed the attacks in Almaty. Who has brought them, where were they based? Most importantly, who was the “customer” and organizer of mass riots, because the theory of a coup attempt has the right to life? The authorities have made timid statements about militants and treason, but a picture is not clear. The editorial staff of CentralAsia.news is continuing attempts to understand the intricacies of the January riots in Kazakhstan, expert Mederbek Korganbaev shared once again his opinion.
It is surprising how the peaceful protests triggered by a rise in fuel prices turned into the riots and storming of buildings. Particularly, for some reason, the most severe situation has arisen in Almaty.
- Unfortunately, the planned intervention, provocations of terrorist groups made the peaceful rallies that had started in the regions of Kazakhstan and Almaty escalate into the riots, unrests and street fights. The “southern capital”, Almaty, was hard hit. The participation of well-trained and armed militants in the events in Almaty was visible to the naked eye.
The media alleged that the foreigners were the most aggressive. They allegedly coordinated the crowd on the streets.
- I believe that members of local radical organisations and terrorist cells played the main role in destabilizing the situation and attacking Almaty. The suggestion about the involvement of foreign fighters in the rallies in Almaty also has the right to life, but their involvement, the number and the crimes they committed need to be detected and proved. In Kazakhstan, a terrorist underground from among the Kazakhs has long existed; after 2010, the Kazakh security forces faced a growing threat of extremism and radicalism.
Was it not without ISIS (a terrorist organisation banned in the Russian Federation)?
- Kazakh terrorists and extremists, how it usually goes, are linked directly or indirectly with such movements abroad. Citizens of Kazakhstan fought for ISIS in Syria. In the Republic, the National Security Committee conducted special operations from time to time, during which they eliminated terrorist groups, while the counter-terrorism agencies suffered combat losses. The events of January 2022 became a kind of opportunity for the radicals to demonstrate once again their skills on a larger scale and assert themselves. It is likely that the terrorists used their combat experience they had gained in Syria in the attacks on Almaty.
A logical question arises, how could the security forces not notice the “army” of ISIS followers?
- It seems that the terrorists who took part in the January events were trained in advance as a tool to resolve intra-clan squabbles and overthrow the government. This is probably why the security forces in Kazakhstan turned a blind eye to their existence. There is no other explanation, the national security agencies and intelligence services of Kazakhstan could not have “blinked” impending destabilization. As far as I understand, President Tokayev has not received reliable information from the intelligence services. All this resembles a conspiracy of the security forces.
It appears that this is why President Tokayev could remove Nazarbayev from the post of Chairman of the Security Council?
- Apparently, some time after the militants began staging attacks, Tokayev realized that the law enforcement agencies did not obey him, and his instructions to restore order were sabotaged. The President had to switch to direct “manual control” of the law enforcement forces and appoint himself as Chairman of the Security Council. It was a reasonable solution.
Can we say that Tokayev did not have the real support of various branches of government?
- In fact, the Kazakh elites, the state apparatus and the security forces are a building, a pillar of the Nazarbayev clan. Tokayev found himself in a critical situation, being alone and without the support of the security forces. In such a situation, the successor had to knock out the protégés of the first president and take the real levers of government into his hands. Amidst the chaos, Tokayev had the courage to reduce the influence and pressure of the Nazarbayev entourage by quick personnel changes.
Did the quick steps taken by the President of the Republic enable him to make his own decision as to invite the CSTO troops? According to the media and analysts, the measure was very timely and effective.
- Reinforcement from the CSTO had a significant impact on the situation; the help of the allies had a chilling effect on the terrorists like a cold shower. During the terrorist attacks, the most urgent task was to ensure Tokayev's security, because an attempt on his life could have been made. I think that the elite units of the CSTO ensured the protection of the life and health of the leader of Kazakhstan at that time along with the protection of strategic facilities. It must be admitted that the President was able to defend his republic thanks to the support of the CSTO.
What are your assumptions: what will be the first steps of the President, given the possible conspiracy of some security officials?
- Henceforth, Tokayev, taking into account past political lessons, will pursue a more adequate domestic and foreign policy. I believe that firstly, the President will build his own team and purge the ranks of Nazarbayev’s cadres. Secondly, this is an improvement in the social and economic situation of citizens, an increase in wages, pensions and benefits, strict price control and reduction. Thirdly, the gentle “dismantling” of the personality cult of Nazarbayev – the capital of Kazakhstan can return its name. Fourthly, Tokayev will launch a large-scale anti-corruption campaign to return the looted funds to the treasury. Probably, the leader of the Republic will create an anti-corruption agency to fight embezzlers. It is the above steps that will enable Tokayev to launch a new course of development and maintain stability in Kazakhstan.
